Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Gerald D. Cohen December 11, 2019
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a larger-than-expected $208.8 billion budget deficit during November, compared to a $204.9 bil. twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $197.0 bil. deficit. For the first two months of the fiscal year, which begins in October, the deficit rose to $343.3 bil. from $305.4 bil. a year ago. On a fiscal year to date (FY) basis, federal government receipts rose 2.6% y/y, but this was more than offset by a 6.5% y/y gain in outlays.
Outside of volatile excise taxes, which fell 39.1% FY y/y, receipts were relatively healthy. Personal income tax revenues grew 4.5% FY y/y, corporate tax receipts were up 11.8% y/y and customs duties which include tariffs jumped 24.2% y/y. As a result of increased tariffs, customs duties soared 71.4% in FY 2019 to $70.8 billion. However, spending on programs such as farm aid increased 81.8% to 23.0 billion. Also of note on the spending side was the surprising weakness in net interest outlays -0.8% FY y/y in November which is likely the result of calendar quirks. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates net interest payment will grow 4.8% in FY 2020.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | November | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-208.84 | $-984.39 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 | $-664.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | $-343.31 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | -4.6% | -3.8% | -3.5% | -3.2% |
% of Total (FY 2019) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Individual Income Taxes | 50 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 7 | 11.8 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
Customs Duties | 2 | 24.2 | 71.4 | 19.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
National Defense | 15 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Health | 13 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 6.0 |
Medicare | 15 | 7.5 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 8.8 |
Income Security | 12 | 0.8 | 4.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
Social Security | 23 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 17.3 | 41.3 | -33.7 | 31.2 | -10.1 |
Interest | 8 | -0.8 | 15.6 | 23.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 |