The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a larger-than-expected $208.8 billion budget deficit during November, compared to a $204.9 bil. twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $197.0 bil. deficit. For the first two months of the fiscal year, which begins in October, the deficit rose to $343.3 bil. from $305.4 bil. a year ago. On a fiscal year to date (FY) basis, federal government receipts rose 2.6% y/y, but this was more than offset by a 6.5% y/y gain in outlays.

Outside of volatile excise taxes, which fell 39.1% FY y/y, receipts were relatively healthy. Personal income tax revenues grew 4.5% FY y/y, corporate tax receipts were up 11.8% y/y and customs duties which include tariffs jumped 24.2% y/y. As a result of increased tariffs, customs duties soared 71.4% in FY 2019 to $70.8 billion. However, spending on programs such as farm aid increased 81.8% to 23.0 billion. Also of note on the spending side was the surprising weakness in net interest outlays -0.8% FY y/y in November which is likely the result of calendar quirks. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates net interest payment will grow 4.8% in FY 2020.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.