Recent Updates

  • Kazakhstan: IIP (Q2), CPI (Sep-Prelim)
  • Bulgaria: Central Bank Balance Sheet (Sep)
  • US: Challenger Employment Report (Sep)
  • Iraq: Crude Oil Exports (Sep-Prelim)
  • Spain Regional: ANFAC Regional Auto Registrations (Sep), Real Estate Transaction
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. CPI Increase Led by Higher Energy Prices; Core Prices Rise Steadily
by Tom Moeller  December 11, 2019

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (2.1% y/y) during November after a 0.4% October rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.2% (2.3% y/y), the same as in October.

Strength in energy prices again provided the most lift to the CPI last month with a 0.8% rise (-0.6% y/y) following October's 2.7% jump. Gasoline prices strengthened 1.1% (-1.2% y/y) while fuel oil prices rose 1.4% (-6.7% y/y). Natural gas prices surged 1.1% both m/m and y/y. The cost of electricity rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y).

Food prices rose a minimal 0.1% last month (2.0% y/y) after a 0.2% October gain. Meat prices strengthened 0.6% (2.5% y/y) while dairy product prices also rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y. Egg prices gained 0.5% (-7.9% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) but fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.7% (+0.4% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.6% (1.7% y/y).

Services prices rose 0.3%. The y/y increase of 3.0% is elevated from 2.7% early this year. Recreation services prices strengthened 0.6% (2.4% y/y). Medical care service prices rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) as did education & communications costs (1.9% y/y). The cost of public transportation improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y). Shelter prices improved 0.3% (3.3% y/y) as hotel costs strengthened 1.1% (3.2% y/y). Rents of primary residences rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y). The owners equivalent rent of primary residences improved 0.2% (3.3% y/y).

Goods prices excluding food & energy held steady last month (0.1% y/y) after easing 0.1% during October. Recreation goods prices edged 0.1% higher, but the y/y increase of 0.8% compared to earlier declines of 3% or more. New car & truck prices eased 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) while used vehicle costs strengthened 0.6% (-0.4% y/y). Apparel prices rose 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) though the cost of men's apparel fell 1.9% (-0.9% y/y). This decline was offset by a 1.2% increase (-3.9% y/y) in women's apparel prices. Furniture & bedding prices eased 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) while appliance prices strengthened 1.0% (0.2% y/y).

The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) Nov Oct Sep Nov Y/Y 2018 2017 2016
Total 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.3
Total less Food & Energy 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.2
  Goods less Food & Energy 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5
  Services less Energy 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1
 Food 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.3
 Energy 0.8 2.7 -1.4 -0.6 7.5 7.9 -6.6
close
large image