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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE December 5, 2019
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 203,000 (-11.4% y/y) during the week ending November 30. The previous week was unrevised at 213,000. This was the smallest amount since 193,000 in the April 13 week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a slight increase to 216,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 217,750 from 219,750 the week before. The Thanksgiving holiday came, of course, during this week and could well have impacted the number of claimants; the holiday occurs on the fourth Thursday of November and was as late this year as it can be, likely affecting the seasonal adjustment calculations.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 51,000 to 1.693 million (+2.4% y/y) in the week ended November 23, thus returning to the range of the previous several weeks. The November 16 number was revised modestly upward by 2,000 to 1.642 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was unchanged at 1.681 million.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 1.2% in the November 23rd week, up from the record-low of 1.1%. It thus returned to its long-standing amount, a number first seen in May 2018. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending November 16, the lowest rates were in Nebraska (0.26%), South Dakota (0.31%), Florida (0.42%), North Carolina (0.45%) and New Hampshire (0.46%). The highest rates were in Connecticut (1.63%), California (1.70%), West Virginia (1.70%), New Jersey (1.99%), and Alaska (2.78%). Among the other largest states by population not mentioned above the rate was 0.99% in Texas, and 1.33% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted, thus Alaska has particularly large seasonal swings in insured rates of unemployment.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/30/19 | 11/23/19 | 11/16/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 203 | 213 | 228 | -11.4 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,693 | 1,642 | 2.4 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |