Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 27, 2019
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) during October after an unrevised 0.2% September rise. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In constant dollars, spending edged 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y) following two 0.2% monthly increases. Constant dollar spending on services provided the lift to consumption last month with a 0.2% rise (1.6% y/y). Real outlays on housing & utilities gained 0.3% (1.1% y/y) while real transportation services usage rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after declining 0.3%. Constant dollar spending on food services & hotels rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Real health care outlays also improved 0.2% (3.1% y/y) for the third straight month. Constant dollar recreation services expenditures declined 0.3% (+0.5% y/y), off for the third month in the last four. These gains were offset by a 0.8% decline (+5.2% y/y) in constant dollar spending on durable goods after a 1.1% jump. The declined reflected a 2.7% easing (+1.8% y/y) in real motor vehicle buying, the third decline in four months. Outlays on recreational vehicles strengthened 0.7% (11.6% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in September. Constant dollar demand for home furnishings & appliances rebounded 0.5% (3.8% y/y) after a 0.5% fall. Real nondurable goods outlays rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after a 0.1% slip. Clothing & footwear demand in constant dollars jumped 1.8% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Real food & beverage purchases gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) as did gasoline demand (1.5% y/y).
Personal income was unchanged (4.4% y/y) in October following a 0.3% rise. A 0.3% rise was expected. Wages & salaries improved 0.4% (4.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Proprietors income fell 1.0% (+5.0% y/y), the first decline in nine months. Rental incomes improved 0.6% (2.3% y/y) after three straight months of slight increase, but receipts on assets fell 1.0% (+0.6% y/y) due to a 1.7% decline (-1.0% y/y) in interest income, the third drop in four months. Transfer receipts improved 0.3% (7.2% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
Personal disposable income eased 0.1% in October (+4.1% y/y) after rising 0.3% in September. Adjusted for inflation, take-home pay fell 0.3% (+2.8% y/y) and reversed September's increase.
Last month's strength in spending relative to the gain in income lowered the personal savings rate to 7.8% from 8.1%. The level of personal saving rose 10.1% y/y last month.
The PCE chain price index increased 0.2% (1.3% y/y) following two months of stability. The price index excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher but the y/y increase fell to 1.6%. Energy prices increased 2.6% (-4.2% y/y) after two months of decline. Food prices improved 0.2% (1.1%) following September's stability.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Disposable Personal Income | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
Personal Saving Rate | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.3 (Oct '18) | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |