Recent Updates

  • US: Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Dec- prelim), Employment Situation (Nov)
  • Global Sector PMI (Nov)
  • US: Consumer Sentiment (Dec-prelim)
  • Lebanon: Public Debt (Oct-Prelim)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Partially Reverses October Drop; Still Indicating Contraction
by Gerald D. Cohen  November 27, 2019

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose less than expected to 46.3 in November reversing some of October’s decline to 43.2, which was the lowest level in four years. September’s value was 47.1. All of these readings are below the key 50-mark for a diffusion index suggesting contracting activity in the Chicago area. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 46.8.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with similar methodology as the ISM Composite Index. This measure declined to 46.9 from 47.5. September’s reading of 46.2 was the lowest since 2009 during the early part of the recovery. The Chicago index has a 77% correlation with the national ISM Manufacturing Index, which is scheduled for release on Monday.

The new orders index jumped to 49.4, more than reversing October’s drop to 37.0, a recessionary reading. Meanwhile, production declined to 42.3 from 46.8. The employment index ticked down to 49.6, just below the 50-growth level. The proportion of survey respondents that indicated both higher and lower employment decreased to 18% from 20% (the respondent share data are not-seasonally adjusted). Supplier deliveries fell to 50.2 from 56.9, a four year low. It is the only activity based index to remain above the 50-mark. The prices paid measure declined to 53.5.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) Nov Oct Sep Nov '18 2018 2017 2016
General Business Barometer 46.3 43.2 47.1 63.5 62.4 60.7 53.0
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer 46.9 47.5 46.2 61.5 60.7 59.0 51.9
   Production 42.3 46.8 40.4 63.5 64.5 64.2 54.5
   New Orders 49.4 37.0 48.5 69.4 63.8 63.6 55.6
   Order Backlogs 45.0 33.1 46.8 59.4 58.0 55.2 47.1
   Inventories 43.0 47.1 41.7 53.2 55.3 54.9 47.2
   Employment 49.6 49.8 45.6 55.0 55.2 52.9 49.4
   Supplier Deliveries 50.2 56.9 54.8 66.4 64.8 59.4 52.8
   Prices Paid 53.5 54.8 57.3 73.3 74.0 64.1 53.2
close
large image