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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
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The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen November 27, 2019
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 15,000 to 213,000 (-9.0% year-on-year) during the week ending November 23. The previous week was revised slightly higher to 228,000 (was 227,000). The late Thanksgiving holiday may have played a role in the seasonally-adjusted decrease, though we will know more in a few weeks. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 221,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 219,750 after reaching a five-month high last week.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 57,000 to 1.640 million (-3.2% y/y) in the week ending November 16, from a slightly-upwardly revised 1.697 million. This is the lowest level of continuing claims since August 1973. However, as noted above, the timing of Thanksgiving may have played a role in the drop. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.681 million from 1.694 million.
The insured rate of unemployment decreased to 1.1%, matching the record low reached in September. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending November 9, the lowest rates were in Nebraska (0.2%), South Dakota (0.2%), Florida (0.4%), Utah (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.4%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.5%), Connecticut (1.6%), California (1.7%), New Jersey (1.9%), and Alaska (2.3%). Among the other largest states by population not mentioned above the rate was 0.9% in Texas, and 1.2% in New York. This data is only reported to one decimal place, as opposed to standard two, because the holiday-driven early data release. These state data are not seasonally adjusted, thus Alaska has particularly large seasonal swings in insured rates of unemployment.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/23/19 | 11/16/19 | 11/09/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 213 | 228 | 227 | -9.0 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,640 | 1,697 | -3.2 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.1 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |