The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity Index fell to -0.71 during October from an unrevised -0.45 in September. It was the lowest level in six months. The three-month moving average smoothes out volatility in the monthly figures. It deteriorated to -0.31 last month, the lowest level since April. The figure remained below the December 2017 high of 0.51. During the last twenty years, there has been a 70% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.

The National Activity Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, was little changed at -0.22. It remained below the peak of 0.51 in December 2017.

Movement in the component series of the National Activity Index was mixed during October. Deterioration in the Production & Income series dominated the overall index decline as it fell to -0.55, a six-month low and down from August's high of 0.18. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series fell to -0.10, the lowest point since February. Showing some m/m improvement was the Personal Consumption & Housing Index of -0.03 after September's drop to -0.05. The Sales, Orders & Inventories reading of -0.03 compared to -0.04, remained below the high of 0.21 reached in January.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.