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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 15, 2019
The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 2.8% to 164.3 during September (11.5% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of increase. Despite the rise, affordability remained roughly one-quarter below the peak level in January 2013.
The September improvement in affordability occurred as principal & interest payments fell m/m to 15.2% of median income, the lowest percentage since January 2018. The percentage remained below its 18.2% peak in June of that year. The median sales price of an existing home eased 2.4% (+6.1% y/y) to $275,100. Payments also were pulled lower as the average mortgage interest rate in September dipped to 3.65%, remaining sharply below the high of 4.99% at the end of last year. Monthly principal & interest payments fell slightly m/m to $1,007 per month (-7.2% y/y). The y/y growth in median family income of 3.5% has been fairly steady this year.
The Housing Affordability Index equals 100 when median family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home. A rising index indicates more buyers can afford to enter the home-buying market. Data on Home Affordability can be found in Haver's REALTOR database. Interest rate data can be found in the WEEKLY and DAILY databases.
| Housing Affordability | Sep | Aug | July | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Rate Housing Affordability Index | 164.3 | 159.8 | 155.3 | 11.5% | 147.8 | 159.1 | 167.7 |
| Payment as a Percent of Income | 15.2 | 15.6 | 16.1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 15.7 | 14.9 |
| Principal and Interest Payment | $1,007 | $1,033 | $1,060 | -7.2% | $1,079 | $967 | $880 |
| Median Sales Price (Existing Single Family Home) | $275,100 | $281,900 | $283,600 | 6.1% | $259,458 | $247,508 | $233,642 |
| Monthly Fixed Mortgage Rate | 3.65% | 3.66% | 3.82% | 4.77% | 4.72% | 4.20% | 3.88% |
| Median Family Income | $79,422 | $79,218 | $79,006 | 3.5% | $76,322 | $73,891 | $71,062 |
