Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Dec- prelim), Employment Situation (Nov)
- Global Sector PMI (Nov)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Dec-prelim)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Accelerates
Consumer Credit Outstanding increased $18.90 billion (4.8% y/y during October...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Edge Up While Sales Slump
Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in October...
U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks as Imports Fall Sharply
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $47.20 billion during October...
U.S. Factory Sector Orders Increase; Inventory Growth Decelerates
Factory orders improved 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall to 7-Month Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 203,000 (-11.4% y/y) during the week ending November 30...
by Tom Moeller November 15, 2019
Total retail sales increased 0.3% (3.1% y/y) during October following an unrevised 0.3% September decline. A 0.2% October gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y) last month after slipping 0.1% in September. Expectations had been for a 0.4% improvement. During the third quarter of this year, consumer spending on goods accounted for 1.1 percentage points of the 1.9% gain in real GDP.
Showing strength, a 0.9% increase in online sales last month (14.3% y/y) was an improvement versus September's 0.2% rise. Nevertheless, it was well below the 1.4% increases during each of the prior two months and below the even stronger monthly gains earlier in the year.
Sales of motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5% (4.5% y/y) following a 1.3% September decline. These results compare to a 3.8% decline in unit vehicle sales in October and a 0.9% September rise. Gasoline & service station sales jumped 1.1% (-5.0% y/y) with higher prices following a 0.1% easing.
General merchandise store sales increased 0.4% and followed declines in three of the prior four months. Sales during the last 12 months grew 0.9% versus 6.2% y/y growth in May 2018. Department store sales edged 0.1% higher last month but declined 6.9% y/y.
Declines in sales were logged elsewhere in the retail trade sector. Apparel & accessory store sales weakened 1.0% (-2.7% y/y) after a 0.3% September improvement. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores fell 0.8% (+0.2% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Sales of furniture & home furnishings were off 0.7% (-1.0% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Sales of building materials and garden equipment weakened 0.5% (-2.0% y/y) after a 1.8% drop. Electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.4% (-3.4% y/y), the second decline in three months.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.6% September decline. Holding steady were sales at health & personal care stores following a 0.6% rise. The 12-month sales increase also weakened to 1.9% from 6.7% late in 2017.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales fell 0.3% (+4.7% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | -1.3 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -5.0 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
