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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 15, 2019
Total retail sales increased 0.3% (3.1% y/y) during October following an unrevised 0.3% September decline. A 0.2% October gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y) last month after slipping 0.1% in September. Expectations had been for a 0.4% improvement. During the third quarter of this year, consumer spending on goods accounted for 1.1 percentage points of the 1.9% gain in real GDP.
Showing strength, a 0.9% increase in online sales last month (14.3% y/y) was an improvement versus September's 0.2% rise. Nevertheless, it was well below the 1.4% increases during each of the prior two months and below the even stronger monthly gains earlier in the year.
Sales of motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5% (4.5% y/y) following a 1.3% September decline. These results compare to a 3.8% decline in unit vehicle sales in October and a 0.9% September rise. Gasoline & service station sales jumped 1.1% (-5.0% y/y) with higher prices following a 0.1% easing.
General merchandise store sales increased 0.4% and followed declines in three of the prior four months. Sales during the last 12 months grew 0.9% versus 6.2% y/y growth in May 2018. Department store sales edged 0.1% higher last month but declined 6.9% y/y.
Declines in sales were logged elsewhere in the retail trade sector. Apparel & accessory store sales weakened 1.0% (-2.7% y/y) after a 0.3% September improvement. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores fell 0.8% (+0.2% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Sales of furniture & home furnishings were off 0.7% (-1.0% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Sales of building materials and garden equipment weakened 0.5% (-2.0% y/y) after a 1.8% drop. Electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.4% (-3.4% y/y), the second decline in three months.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.6% September decline. Holding steady were sales at health & personal care stores following a 0.6% rise. The 12-month sales increase also weakened to 1.9% from 6.7% late in 2017.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales fell 0.3% (+4.7% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
Excluding Autos | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | -1.3 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -5.0 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |