Recent Updates

  • US: Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Dec- prelim), Employment Situation (Nov)
  • Global Sector PMI (Nov)
  • US: Consumer Sentiment (Dec-prelim)
  • Lebanon: Public Debt (Oct-Prelim)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens
by Tom Moeller  November 13, 2019

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $134.5 billion budget deficit during October compared to a $100.5 billion deficit twelve months earlier. Budget receipts fell 2.8% y/y while outlays rose 7.6% y/y. October is the first month of the new fiscal year. The pattern of receipts and outlays changed little from those in FY 2019 when the federal government budget deficit totaled $984.4 billion compared to the $779.0 billion shortfall in FY 2018. That widening occurred as a 4.0% rise in revenues was outpaced by an 8.2% rise in outlays. For October alone, a $121.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Tax receipts declined last month by 2.8% y/y. Personal income tax revenues fell 1.9% y/y after a 2.0% rise last year. Corporate tax receipts declined 17.9% y/y. Social insurance receipts rose 3.8% y/y after a 6.2% FY'19 rise and excise taxes collapsed 59.0% y/y.

Government outlays increased a fairly steady 7.6% y/y. National defense spending strengthened 7.5% y/y following 8.2% y/y growth during all of FY'19. Health program outlays rose an increased 9.2% y/y. Medicare expenses increased 5.9% y/y as growth decelerated sharply from the 2018 pace. Income security payments declined 2.2% y/y while Social Security payments grew a steady 6.0% y/y. Lower interest rates helped growth in interest payments slow to 1.6% y/y from 15.7% growth last year.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

United States Government Finance October FY'19 FY'18 FY'17 FY'16
Budget Balance (Billions) -- $-134.5 $-984.4 $-779.0 $-665.8 $-585.6
Fiscal 'YTD -- -- -- -- -- --
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 4.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2%
% of Total
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y Change) 100 -2.8% 4.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.6%
  Individual Income Taxes 51 -1.9 2.0 6.1 2.7 0.3
  Corporate Income Taxes -- -17.9 12.5 -31.1 -0.8 -12.9
  Social Insurance Taxes 35 3.8 6.2 0.8 4.2 4.7
  Excise Taxes 3 -59.0 4.1 13.3 -11.8 -3.3
Net Outlays  (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) 100 7.6 8.2 3.2 3.3 4.5
  National Defense 16 7.5 8.8 0.1 6.1 0.7
  Health 13 9.2 6.1 9.8 -1.9 6.2
  Medicare 14 5.9 10.6 -1.4 0.6 8.7
  Income Security 12 -2.2 4.0 -1.6 -2.1 1.0
  Social Security 24 6.0 5.7 4.5 3.1 3.2
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 4.4 11.8 1.3 1.2 9.3
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 2 44.9 43.8 -34.0 31.6 -10.2
  Interest 8 1.6 15.7 23.6 9.1 7.8
close
large image