Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 7, 2019
Initial applications for unemployment insurance fell to 211,000 (-4.3% y/y) during the week ended November 2 from 219,000 in the prior week, revised from 218,000. It was the lowest number of claims in four weeks. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged higher to 215,250 from 215,000. During the last 20 years, there has been a 68% correlation between the number of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance slipped to 1.689 million during the week ended October 26 from 1.692 million in the week prior, revised from 1.690 million. The four-week moving average of claimants held steady at 1.687 million.
In the week ending October 26, the insured rate of unemployment of 1.2% was near the record low of 1.1% for the fifth straight week. Data on the insured unemployment rate dates back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 19, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), Nebraska (0.21%), North Dakota (0.35%), Utah (0.41%) and New Hampshire (0.41%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.48%), Connecticut (1.55%), California (1.63%), New Jersey (1.82%), and Alaska (2.04%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.42% in Florida, 0.92% in Texas and 1.1% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/02/19 | 10/26/19 | 10/19/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 211 | 219 | 213 | -4.3 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,689 | 1,692 | 2.0 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |