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- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 5, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate fell to 4.4% during September from 4.6% in August, revised from 4.4%. It remained below the 4.8% record in January. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The ability to find workers to fill openings held steady as the hiring rate stayed at 3.9%. It has been moving sideways since early last year. Employers became less reluctant to let people go. The layoff & discharge rate rose m/m to 1.3%. It was the highest level since November of last year and up from June's 1.1% low. Individuals became slightly less ready to find new work. The quits rate eased m/m to 2.3% from 2.4%, but remained near the record high.
The private-sector job openings rate declined m/m to 4.7%. The rate has increased from 4.5% since early last year. In professional & business services, the rate eased m/m to 5.5% and remained below January's 6.5% high. In leisure & hospitality, the rate improved to 5.5% but remained below December's high of 6.2%. In education & health services, the rate fell sharply to 4.7%, the lowest level in nearly two years. In trade, transportation & utilities, the rate eased to 4.4%. The openings rate fell to 4.3% in the construction sector but remained below the record 5.5% reached in April. In manufacturing, the rate held steady at 3.5%. The government sector job openings rate slipped m/m to 3.1%, but remained well above the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings declined 3.8% (-5.0% y/y) and has been declining steadily since January's high. It remained the lowest level since March of last year. Private-sector openings fell 7.0% y/y, but government sector job openings increased 16.6% y/y.
Hiring activity remained steady in September. The private-sector hiring rate was unchanged at 4.3%, but remained slightly below July's expansion high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality was steady at 6.8%. In professional & business services, the hiring rate increased sharply to 5.7%, the highest level since April. It nevertheless remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate strengthened m/m to 5.7%, but remained below the high of 6.6% in December 2016. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities improved to 4.3% and in education & health services the rate rose slightly to 2.9% after a sharp August drop. In manufacturing, the hiring rate rose slightly to 2.7%, but remained below the July 2018 high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government eased to 1.6%.
Total hiring edged 0.8% higher (4.7% y/y) after a 1.6% August decline. Hiring in the private sector rebounded 1.4% (4.5% y/y) while government sector hiring declined 6.8% (+7.6% y/y).
Individuals remained ready to find new work. The overall job separations rate held at 3.8%, equaling the expansion high. The private sector separations rate held at the cycle high of 4.2%. The separations rate in government rose slightly to 1.6%.
The total level of separations rose an increased 4.5% y/y. The private sector's rate rose 4.6% y/y. The increase reflected a 10.0% y/y gain in professional & business services separations. In educational and health services, separations climbed 4.3% y/y, and separations in trade, transportation & utilities rose 3.5% y/y. Separations in leisure & hospitality rose 1.6% y/y. The construction sector saw a 15.8% y/y rise in separations. Separations in manufacturing rose 11.6% y/y while separations in the government sector rose 3.8% y/y.
Confidence in finding work fell recently. The level of quits fell for the second straight month and rose a reduced 3.1% y/y. The quits rate slipped m/m to 2.3%, but was sharply higher versus 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate eased to 2.6%, but has increased from 1.4% since the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate of 0.8% held steady m/m, but was double the rate at the beginning of the economic expansion.
The level of layoffs surged in the last three months, and rose 8.0% y/y. In the private sector, layoffs increased 9.3% y/y and the layoff rate surged to 1.4%, the highest level since November. It nevertheless remained below the 2009 high of 2.2%. Layoffs declined 11.1% y/y in the government sector and the layoff rate was steady at 0.5%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Sep | Aug | July | Sep'18 | Sep'17 | Sep'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
Total (000s) | 7,024 | 7,301 | 7,174 | 7,392 | 6,256 | 5,828 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,934 | 5,884 | 5,978 | 5,670 | 5,395 | 5,273 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Total (000s) | 1,964 | 1,812 | 1,788 | 1,818 | 1,817 | 1,593 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,498 | 3,601 | 3,668 | 3,393 | 3,210 | 3,038 |