Recent Updates

  • US: Employment Situation (Nov), Consumer Sentiment (Dec-Prelim)
  • Lebanon: Public Debt (Oct-Prelim)
  • US: US Sector PMI (Nov)
  • US: Establishment Survey Detail (Nov)
  • Canada: Labor Force Survey (Nov)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

ISM Manufacturing Index Increases But Stays Below 50-Growth Level
by Gerald D. Cohen  November 1, 2019

The ISM manufacturing index increased to 48.3 in October from September's cycle low of 47.8. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated an increase to 49.0. According to the ISM press release, the October reading is consistent with real GDP growth of 1.6%.

All of the subcomponents of the headline index were below the 50-growth level, with supplier deliveries falling below that level for the first time in three-and-a-half years. The production index continued its slide, declining to a cycle low of 46.2 from 47.3. Meanwhile, new orders, employment and inventories rose. The new export orders index, which is not a component of the headline measure, increased to 50.4, but imports fell to 45.3, the lowest level in 10 years.

The prices paid index -- which is not seasonally adjusted -- fell to 45.5 in October, more than reversing September's increase. Only 15.7% of respondents reported paying higher prices while 24.7% reported lower prices.

The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database; further detail is found in the SURVEYS database. The expectations number is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ISM Mfg (SA) Oct Sep Aug Oct'18 2018 2017 2016
Headline Index 48.3 47.8 49.1 57.5 58.8 57.4 51.3
 New Orders 49.1 47.3 47.2 58.0 61.5 62.2 54.5
 Production 46.2 47.3 49.5 59.3 60.7 60.9 53.8
 Employment 47.7 46.3 47.4 56.5 56.9 56.8 49.1
 Supplier Deliveries 49.5 51.1 51.4 63.2 62.0 56.8 51.8
 Inventories 48.9 46.9 49.9 50.7 52.9 50.4 47.5
Prices Paid Index (NSA) 45.5 49.7 46.0 71.6 71.7 65.0 53.1
close
large image