Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen November 1, 2019
The ISM manufacturing index increased to 48.3 in October from September's cycle low of 47.8. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated an increase to 49.0. According to the ISM press release, the October reading is consistent with real GDP growth of 1.6%.
All of the subcomponents of the headline index were below the 50-growth level, with supplier deliveries falling below that level for the first time in three-and-a-half years. The production index continued its slide, declining to a cycle low of 46.2 from 47.3. Meanwhile, new orders, employment and inventories rose. The new export orders index, which is not a component of the headline measure, increased to 50.4, but imports fell to 45.3, the lowest level in 10 years.
The prices paid index -- which is not seasonally adjusted -- fell to 45.5 in October, more than reversing September's increase. Only 15.7% of respondents reported paying higher prices while 24.7% reported lower prices.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database; further detail is found in the SURVEYS database. The expectations number is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline Index | 48.3 | 47.8 | 49.1 | 57.5 | 58.8 | 57.4 | 51.3 |
New Orders | 49.1 | 47.3 | 47.2 | 58.0 | 61.5 | 62.2 | 54.5 |
Production | 46.2 | 47.3 | 49.5 | 59.3 | 60.7 | 60.9 | 53.8 |
Employment | 47.7 | 46.3 | 47.4 | 56.5 | 56.9 | 56.8 | 49.1 |
Supplier Deliveries | 49.5 | 51.1 | 51.4 | 63.2 | 62.0 | 56.8 | 51.8 |
Inventories | 48.9 | 46.9 | 49.9 | 50.7 | 52.9 | 50.4 | 47.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 45.5 | 49.7 | 46.0 | 71.6 | 71.7 | 65.0 | 53.1 |