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- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2019
Consumers remain in a mood to spend. Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.2% (3.9% y/y) during September, the same as in August which was revised from 0.1%. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In constant dollars, spending also rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) for the second straight month. Constant dollar spending on durable goods increased 0.6% (5.7% y/y) for a second month as well. The gain was led by a 1.4% rebound (2.5% y/y) in motor vehicle outlays after two months of decline. Outlays on recreational vehicles eased 0.1% (+11.8% y/y) after rising 0.8% and constant dollar demand for home furnishings & appliances fell 0.4% (+2.9% y/y). Real nondurable goods outlays rose 0.3% (4.0% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Clothing & footwear demand in constant dollars rose 0.8% (3.2% y/y) and recouped the August shortfall. Real food & beverage purchases eased 0.1% (+ 2.9% y/y) but gasoline demand rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y). Real services outlays edged 0.1% higher for the fourth consecutive month. The 1.7% y/y rise compares to 3.2% y/y as of August of last year. The overall change was held back by spending at restaurants & hotels which declined 0.4% (+1.3% y/y) in constant dollars after easing 0.1%. Real expenditures on transportation services fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y). To the upside, real housing & utilities demand, the largest services category, edged 0.1% higher (0.8% y/y). Real recreation services outlays strengthened 0.4% (1.9% y/y) after holding steady in August. Real health care services outlays rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y).
Personal income improved 0.3% (4.9% y/y) in September following a 0.5% rise. Wages & salaries held steady (5.2% y/y) after a 0.6% strengthening in August. Proprietors income rose 0.4% (7.1% y/y) after surging 2.3%. Rental incomes were unchanged (1.4% y/y) for the third straight month, but receipts on assets strengthened 0.9% (1.8% y/y) following two months of decline. Transfer receipts improved 0.3% (7.3% y/y), the same as during the prior two months. Personal disposable income rose 0.3% in September (4.9% y/y) after surging 0.6% in August. Adjusted for inflation, take-home pay also improved 0.3% (3.5% y/y) after rising 0.5%.
Last month's strength in disposable income relative to the gain in spending lifted the personal savings rate to 8.3%, its highest level in six months. The level of personal saving rose 16.6% y/y in September.
Price inflation as measured by the PCE chain price index was steady (1.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month. The price index excluding food & energy also was unchanged and the y/y increase eased to 1.7%. Energy prices declined 1.3% (-4.8% y/y), down for a second consecutive month. Food prices held steady (0.8% y/y) following three straight months of decline.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
Personal Saving Rate | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.5 (Sep'18) | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
PCE Chain Price Index | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |