Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel October 30, 2019
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for September were rather comparable to August's initial estimates, though fewer states appear to be growing very rapidly. Over the last 12 months, 32 states show increases in their index in the 2 to 4 percent range—up slightly from the initial August count of 29 in that range. Only 3 states report growth above 4 percent (Utah, Nevada, and Alabama),compared to 7 in that first August report. Michigan was again the only state to see a 12-month decline in its index. Growth appears to have been a bit more uniform across the nation; four Eastern states were in the top ten (Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts joining Alabama in that group). Once again, states in the middle of the nation tended to report weaker group; New York, however, with a modest 1.5 percent gain was also toward the low end.
Over the three months ending in September, 18 states had gains of less than .5 percent, with 7 declines, with, as was the case in August, Kentucky reporting the largest decline. 11 states had gains of 1 percent or more, scattered across the nation and including Florida and California. Alabama had far and away the largest gain, at 2 percent, perhaps in some connection with the start of the college football season!
South Carolina had the largest index gain from August to September (a good sign for Clemson?); 8 states report declines, with the largest in North Dakota—the next two weakest states were also small energy producers (West Virginia and Wyoming).
Once again, the Philadelphia indexes show fewer instances of very rapid growth, and scattered signs of softness. Three of the four largest states continue to grow strongly (California's 12-month gain was 3.3 percent), but New York has been soft.