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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 29, 2019
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that U.S. pending home sales rose 1.5% (3.9% y/y) during September following a 1.4% August increase. The index level of sales increased to 108.7, the highest level since December 2017.
Sales were mixed last month across the country. In the Midwest sales increased 3.1% (2.7% y/y) last month after a 0.2% rise. In the South sales rose 2.6% (5.7% y/y) following a 1.3% gain. Working 1.3% lower (+3.4% y/y) were sales in the West after a 3.1% rise. In the Northeast sales eased 0.4% (+1.3% y/y) following a 1.4% increase.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the sale of an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is a month or two later. Accordingly, in developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity precedes the level of closed existing home sales by one to two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 108.7 | 107.1 | 105.6 | 3.9 | 104.7 | 109.1 | 109.8 |
Northeast | 93.9 | 94.3 | 93.0 | 1.3 | 92.4 | 97.1 | 96.4 |
Midwest | 104.4 | 101.3 | 101.1 | 2.7 | 100.2 | 104.9 | 107.4 |
South | 127.5 | 124.3 | 122.7 | 5.7 | 121.6 | 123.9 | 123.0 |
West | 95.1 | 96.4 | 93.5 | 3.4 | 92.3 | 99.5 | 102.3 |