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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 29, 2019
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for October fell 0.3% (-8.7% y/y) to 125.9 after declines in three of the prior four months. A rise to 127.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the lowest level of confidence since June. September's index level was upwardly revised to 126.3 from 125.1. During the last 20 years, there has been 72% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The decline in confidence reflected a 2.0% weakening (-17.5% y/y) in the expectations component to 94.9, the lowest level since January. The present situations reading improved 1.0% (0.2% y/y) after a 3.1% decline.
A greatly lessened 18.6% of respondents felt that business conditions would improve in the next six months, the least since March. A reduced 16.9% expected that there would be more jobs. An improved 21.0% felt that income would rise, still down from the 24.9% expected three months earlier. An improved 39.2% of respondents felt business conditions were good, remaining below the 42.0% high reached last November. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 11.8% of respondents, the fewest since November 2000. An improved 46.9% felt that jobs were plentiful.
Expectations for inflation in twelve months were steady m/m at 4.8% and remained below June's high of 5.1%. Forty-four percent of respondents thought that interest rates would rise over the next year versus 73.2% who thought so 12 months ago. Thirty-two percent of respondents felt that stock prices would rise versus 44% last October.
An increased 1.4% of respondents planned to buy a new home and a steady 50.4% planned to buy a major appliance.
Confidence amongst survey respondents over age 55 improved 3.0% (-11.9% y/y) in October. The index level remained down sharply, however, versus its November peak. Confidence amongst respondents aged 35-54 held steady (-11.1% y/y) after two months of sharp decline. Confidence amongst respondents under age 35 fell 7.3% (+4.0% y/y) after a 2.6% decline.
The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 125.9 | 126.3 | 134.2 | -8.7 | 130.1 | 120.5 | 99.8 |
Present Situation | 172.3 | 170.6 | 176.0 | 0.2 | 164.8 | 144.8 | 120.3 |
Expectations | 94.9 | 96.8 | 106.4 | -17.5 | 107.0 | 104.3 | 86.1 |
Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
Under 35 Years | 139.0 | 150.0 | 154.0 | 4.0 | 133.7 | 130.2 | 122.4 |
Aged 35-54 Years | 127.3 | 127.3 | 132.7 | -11.1 | 132.2 | 123.5 | 106.2 |
Over 55 Years | 118.9 | 115.4 | 127.1 | -11.9 | 126.3 | 112.9 | 84.6 |