Recent Updates
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Jan)
- Canada: Consumer Price Index (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drag Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 28, 2019
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity Index declined to -0.45 during September from 0.15 in August, revised from 0.10. It was the lowest index level since April. The three-month moving average, which smoothes out volatility in the monthly figures, fell to -0.24 last month versus -0.06 in August. The figure remained below the December 2017 high of 0.51. During the last twenty years, there has been a 70% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The National Activity Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, deteriorated to -0.25 from -0.10. That remained below the peak of 0.51 in December 2017.
Declines in each of the component series contributed to last month's fall in the National Activity Index. The Production & Income series led the declines, falling to -0.37 and reversing an August rise. It was the lowest level since April. The Personal Consumption & Housing Index eased to -0.04 and also reversed the prior month's improvement. The Sales, Orders & Inventories group eased to -0.02 from -0.01 and remained below the high of 0.21 reached in January. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series slipped to -0.02 from -0.03. It has been moving sideways since May.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (percent) | -0.45 | 0.15 | -0.41 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.16 | -0.11 |
3-Month Moving Average | -0.24 | -0.06 | -0.15 | 0.27 | -- | -- | -- |
Diffusion Index | -0.25 | -0.10 | -0.20 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.09 | -0.19 |
Production & Income | -0.37 | 0.19 | -0.26 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.05 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.01 |