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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Improves, Despite Easing in Most Components
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Japan's Trade Remains in Deficit
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by Tom Moeller October 24, 2019
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods declined 1.1% (-5.4% y/y) during September following a 0.3% August rise, revised from 0.2%. A 0.9% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business investment plans, fell 0.5% last month after a 0.6% decline. During the past year, these orders have eased 0.8%, following double-digit y/y growth late in 2017.
The level of durable goods orders overall was pulled lower by a 2.7% decline (-14.3% y/y) in transportation sector orders. Orders for commercial aircraft & parts dropped 11.8% after a 17.8% August decline. Motor vehicle & parts orders fell 1.6% (+0.1% y/y) for the second straight month.
Orders outside of the transportation sector eased 0.3% in September and reversed the prior month's increase. These orders were unchanged y/y compared to 9.0% y/y growth early last year. Primary metals orders rose 0.3% (-5.5% y/y). Fabricated metals orders declined 1.5%, but improved by a lessened 2.5% y/y. Electrical equipment & appliance orders rose 0.9% and y/y growth was fairly steady at 4.2%. Machinery orders rose 0.2% but fell 1.5% y/y. Orders for computers & electronic products declined 0.9% last month (-0.4% y/y). Annual growth was double-digit as of June of last year. Computer & related product orders surged 1.4%, but fell 11.0% y/y. Communications equipment orders improved 1.5% (0.2% y/y) after two months of sharp decline.
Durable goods shipments declined 0.4% (-1.0% y/y), down for the third straight month. Shipments outside of transportation held steady, and y/y growth of 0.8% compared to 8.7% as of July of 2018. Unfilled orders were fairly steady (-1.8% y/y). Order backlogs outside of transportation also were stable. Year-to-year growth of 0.5% compared to 5.6% as of August 2018. Inventories rose an accelerated 0.5% (4.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories held steady (1.5% y/y) with transportation sector inventories up 11.6% y/y.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.1 | 0.3 | 2.1 | -5.4 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -2.7 | 0.2 | 7.3 | -14.3 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.8 | -3.1 | 5.2 | -9.1 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.5 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | -0.4 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -1.0 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
