Recent Updates
- US: GDP (Q1-3rd Estimate), GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Qatar: PPI (May)
- Chile: Employment (May)
- Namibia: Central Bank Survey (May)
- Turkey: Foreign Exchange Position (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
U.S. Energy Prices Decline
The AAA retail price of gasoline fell seven cents to $4.94 per gallon (+60.4% y/y) in the week ended June 24...
French Consumer Worries Intensify in the Wake of Russia Attack
French confidence is weak in June 2022...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 23, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index declined 11.9% (+53.6% y/y) during the week ending October 18, following a 0.5% improvement in the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan plunged 17.1% w/w (+125.8% y/y) after strong gains in each of the prior three weeks. Purchase applications fell 3.6% (+5.8% y/y), down for the fourth week of the last five.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 3.48% from 3.40%, its highest level in three weeks. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 4.13% from 4.02%, but remains well below the November 2018 high of 5.33%. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage rose to 4.04%, but was roughly 100 basis points below October of last year. The rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage eased to 3.42%, down from 4.52% last October.
The average mortgage loan size declined sharply to $312,700 (+6.9% y/y) from $329,900. The average loan size for purchases eased to $329,700 (+6.8% y/y). For refinancings, the average loan size declined sharply to $300,700 (+12.3% y/y), its least since December of last year.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 56.4% y/y. Adjustable rate loan applications increased a greatly lessened 4.1% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 10/18/19 | 10/11/19 | 10/04/19 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | -11.9 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 53.6 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | -3.6 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | -17.1 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 125.8 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.48 | 3.40 | 3.42 | 4.63 (Oct.'18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |