Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Dec-Prelim), Employment Situation (Nov)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Dec-prelim)
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Oct-Prelim)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Factory Sector Orders Increase; Inventory Growth Decelerates
Factory orders improved 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall to 7-Month Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 203,000 (-11.4% y/y) during the week ending November 30...
U.S. ADP Private Payroll Increase Disappoints
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 67,000 (1.5% y/y) during November...
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Weakens
The ISM Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity declined to 53.9 during November...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Slump
The MBA Mortgage Loan Index slumped 9.2% w/w (+50.5% y/y) in the week ending November 29...
by Tom Moeller October 16, 2019
Total business inventories were unchanged during August (4.2% y/y) following a 0.3% July gain, revised from 0.4%. Total business sales rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y), the same as in July which was revised from 0.3%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40 for the fourth straight month.
Retail inventories eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) in August after a 0.7% jump. Auto inventories slipped 0.1% (+5.6% y/y) while nonauto inventories fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y). Inventories of furniture & home furnishings eased 0.1% (-0.8% y/y), down for the fifth month in the last six. Clothing inventories fell 0.2% (+0.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.4% (-0.8% y/y) after a 0.8% increase while department store inventories declined for the seventh month this year (-7.6% y/y). Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% (6.2% y/y) in August for a second straight month. Factory sector inventories were little-changed (+2.9% y/y) after two minimal increases.
Retail sales increased 0.6% (4.6% y/y) in August after a 0.8% rise. Sales excluding autos improved 0.3% (3.9% y/y). Wholesale sector sales were unchanged (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, while shipments from the factory sector eased 0.1% (-0.3% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector slipped to 1.44 and has been falling since early this year. The non-auto retail I/S ratio held steady at 1.18 and matched its all-time low reached in November 2018. The wholesale I/S ratio was unchanged at 1.36 in August while the manufacturing I/S ratio held at 1.38.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Aug | July | June | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
Retail | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Manufacturing | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
Retail | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
Manufacturing | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |