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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE October 10, 2019
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 210,000 (-0.9% y/y) during the week ended October 5 from 220,000 in the previous week, revised from 219,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 217,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1,000 to 213,750. During the last twenty years, there has been a 68% correlation between the number of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.684 million (+1.0% y/y) in the week ending September 28 from 1.655 million in the prior week, revised from 1.651 million. Modest as the year-to-year increase is, it is the first positive such comparison since January 2010. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.665 million, up from 1.662 million the week before.
The insured rate of unemployment for the week ending September 28 ticked back up to its longstanding 1.2% after holding for two weeks at 1.1%, which is the record low. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending September 21, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), Nebraska (0.23%), North Dakota (0.32%), New Hampshire (0.41%) and Utah (0.41%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.47%), Alaska (1.54%), Connecticut (1.55%), California (1.62%), and New Jersey (1.80%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.93% in Texas, 0.46% in Florida, and 1.11% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 10/05/19 | 09/28/19 | 09/21/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 210 | 220 | 215 | -0.9 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,684 | 1,655 | 1.0 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |