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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 9, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index increased 5.2% (68.0% y/y) in the week ending October 4, following an 8.1% rise during the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan gained 9.8% (+162.5% y/y) and added to the prior week's strong increase. Purchase applications eased 0.9% (+9.8% y/y), reversing the prior week's increase.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 3.42% from 3.52%. It was down more than one percentage point y/y. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 4.01%, and was below the November 2018 high of 5.33%. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage declined to 3.98% from 5.07% averaged last October. The rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage dropped sharply to 3.37% compared to 4.52% averaged one year earlier.
The average mortgage loan size rose slightly to $328,600 (+11.8% y/y), but fell from $358,100 early in June. The average loan size for purchases increased to $330,600 (5.8% y/y). For refinancings, the average loan size rose to $327,300 (23.4% y/y).
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 71.6% y/y, while adjustable rate loan applications increased 22.2% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 10/04/19 | 09/27/19 | 09/20/19 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 5.2 | 8.1 | -10.1 | 68.0 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | -0.9 | 0.9 | -3.1 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | 9.8 | 14.2 | -15.2 | 162.5 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.42 | 3.52 | 3.55 | 4.63 (Oct.'18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |