Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
- US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Service Sector Survey, Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook (Jan)
- IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook (Jan 2021)
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 8, 2019
The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% during September (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick during August. A 0.1% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy fell 0.3% last month (+2.0% y/y) and reversed the prior month's increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected. The PPI excluding food, beverages and trade services, another measure of underlying price inflation, held steady (1.7% y/y) last month after rising 0.4% in August.
A second straight 2.5% decline in energy prices (-8.7% y/y) weighed on the overall PPI last month. The decline reflected a 7.2% drop (-16.0% y/y) in gasoline prices after falling 6.6% in August. Home heating oil prices fell 1.3% last month (-13.7% y/y) after declining 12.1%. The cost of electric power fell 1.8% (+1.1% y/y) after improving 0.3%. Offsetting these declines was a 0.4% rise (0.7% y/y) in natural gas prices.
Moving 0.3% higher (2.7% y/y) were food prices following a 0.6% decline. Beef & veal prices strengthened 2.0% (4.5% y/y). Fish prices rebounded 0.9% both m/m and y/y after a sharp August decline. The cost of dairy products fell 0.7% (+5.7% y/) for a second straight month, and fresh & dried vegetable costs weakened 9.5% (NSA, +8.3% y/y). Fresh fruit & melon prices posted a 2.2% decline (-10.9% y/y). Egg prices surged 18.4% m/m (NSA, -6.8% y/y). Oilseed prices strengthened 1.6% (7.1% y/y) and the cost of bakery products rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y).
Prices for core goods for final demand eased 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) after holding steady in August. Core finished consumer goods prices were unchanged (1.9% y/y). Core nondurable consumer goods costs improved a steady 0.1% but the y/y change weakened to 2.6%, down from 3.8% y/y twelve months earlier. Durable consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y). Passenger car prices improved 0.4% both m/m and y/y but appliance prices weakened 0.6% (NSA, +2.1% y/y). Private capital equipment costs held steady (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Government goods prices less food & energy eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement.
Services prices weakened 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) after rising 0.3%, while trade services prices declined 1.0% (+3.1% y/y). The cost of trade of finished goods fell 1.1% (+2.8% y/y). Passenger transportation fees fell 2.4% (+1.7% y/y) after rising 1.4% for two straight months. Transportation & warehousing costs fell 0.4% (+0.6% y/y), off for the third straight month. Services prices less trade, transportation & warehousing added 0.3% (2.1% y/y) to the prior month's 0.5% rise.
Construction costs edged 0.1% higher (5.5% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Private building costs gained 0.2% (5.4% y/y) but government building costs held steady (5.7% y/y).
Prices for intermediate demand fell 0.4% (-3.4% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five.
The PPI data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Further detail can be found in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
Data-Dependent Monetary Policy in an Evolving Economy from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell can be found here.
Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
Excluding Food & Energy | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Goods | -0.4 | -0.5 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | -1.4 |
Foods | 0.3 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -2.8 |
Energy | -2.5 | -2.5 | 2.3 | -8.7 | 10.2 | 10.4 | -8.4 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Services | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Trade Services | -1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Construction | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -0.4 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -3.4 | 5.3 | 4.7 | -3.1 |