Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 30, 2019
The Chicago Business Barometer weakened to 47.1 during September from 50.4 during August. It was the third reading in the last four months below the break-even point of 50. Expectations had been for 50.1 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Chicago Purchasing Managers figures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate growth.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure fell to 46.2 from 48.7, the third consecutive month below 50. This Chicago index has a 68% correlation with the national ISM Manufacturing Index, which is scheduled for release tomorrow. During the last 15 years, the index has had a 60% correlation with q/q change in real GDP.
Movement in the component series was mixed this month with new orders, production, order backlogs and inventories moving lower, the latter falling sharply. The supplier delivery series rose, indicating somewhat slower rates of product delivery.
The employment index rose to 45.6 in September, remaining below break-even for the third straight month. The proportion of survey respondents reporting higher employment improved slightly to 13% following a sharp decline in August. The share with reduced employment rose to 24%. These share figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The prices paid index fell to 57.3 from 59.8, down from 79.8 twelve months earlier. The share of respondents paying higher prices fell to 21% from 54% last September, while those paying lower prices rose to 12%, up from two percent one year earlier.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 47.1 | 50.4 | 44.4 | 61.5 | 62.4 | 60.7 | 53.0 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 46.2 | 48.7 | 47.5 | 59.7 | 60.7 | 59.0 | 51.9 |
Production | 40.4 | 48.1 | 41.4 | 60.9 | 64.5 | 64.2 | 54.5 |
New Orders | 48.5 | 53.4 | 43.6 | 62.8 | 63.8 | 63.6 | 55.6 |
Order Backlogs | 46.8 | 51.3 | 43.5 | 61.8 | 58.0 | 55.2 | 47.1 |
Inventories | 41.7 | 47.9 | 54.0 | 59.7 | 55.3 | 54.9 | 47.2 |
Employment | 45.6 | 43.7 | 42.9 | 52.1 | 55.2 | 52.9 | 49.4 |
Supplier Deliveries | 54.8 | 50.3 | 55.6 | 63.0 | 64.8 | 59.4 | 52.8 |
Prices Paid | 57.3 | 59.8 | 56.1 | 79.8 | 74.0 | 64.1 | 53.2 |