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Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel September 27, 2019
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for August show some increased dispersion and, overall, some signs of softening in economic growth. Over the last 12 months, 29 states show increases in their index in the 2 to 4 percent range—down from counts over 30 in that middle group in recent months. 7 states were at 4 percent or higher; 14 were lower than 2 percent, with Michigan reporting a decline. Western states were again generally stronger than the east; with Nevada at the top, with a 4.7 percent gain. Two large Eastern states—Georgia and Florida—did report growth of 3.5 percent. The weaker states tended to be in the middle portion of the nation, though New York was also in that group.
Over the three months ending in August, 24 states had gains of less than .5 percent, with 45 declines, with Kentucky's index down nearly 1 percent over that period. 14 states, though, had gains of 1 percent or more; these were in a wide swath literally from Maine to California (and with Alabama in the group just touching a southern border). Montana was again the state with the highest growth in this category. Its 2.48 percent increase was virtually the same as the preliminary 2.49 percent rise in its index reported for the April-July period
Montana also, (again) had the largest one-month increase in the initial results for August. 8 states saw declines (the initial report for July had 12 in this category), with drops of 2 percent or more in Delaware, Wyoming, and Kentucky.
The upshot from this survey is comparable to other recent reports. Growth is continuing, but with a fair number of states seeing cooling-off, and fewer showing extremely rapid growth. In the very largest states, Texas, California, and Florida still report strong numbers, though none of them were in the very top group; however, the figures from New York have been soft.