Recent Updates
- US: Public Debt (Nov), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders, Intl Trade (Oct), Employment Situation (Nov)
- Global Sector PMI (Nov)
- Ireland: GDP (Q3), Unemployment Claims (Nov)
- Spain: Spain Debt Target Goals (2019)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in October as Exports Grow Faster than Imports
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $63.1 billion in October...
U.S. Factory Orders Continue to Grow; Shipments Also Expand
Manufacturing activity expanded further in October...
German Orders Continue Their Hot Streak
German real orders have risen month-to-month for six months in a row...
U.S. ISM Services Index Slips During November
The Composite Index of Services Activity from the Institute for Supply Management eased to 55.9 during November...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall Sharply
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance declined sharply during the week ended November 28 to 712,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen September 27, 2019
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in August (-3.0% year-on-year) following a 2.0% increase in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% decline. Orders in the transportation sector decreased 0.4% (-8.5% y/y) after jumping 7.2%. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, were down 0.2% (-0.3% y/y), following an unchanged reading. In the second quarter GDP report inflation-adjusted non-residential fixed investment declined at a 1.0% annual rate (+2.6% y/y).
A 0.8% decline in motor vehicle and a 5.6% drop in aircraft orders (+3.3% and -37.7% y/y respectively) were more than offset by 0.6% and 1.3% gains in machinery and fabricated metals (-1.3% and +2.5% y/y respectively).
Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.1% in August (0.3% y/y) after falling 1.2%. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft increased 0.4% (1.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods including and excluding transportation both edged up 0.1% (-0.9% and +0.8% y/y respectively). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories ticked down 0.1% (+2.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -3.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -0.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | -8.5 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | -8.4 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
