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by Gerald D. Cohen September 27, 2019
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in August (-3.0% year-on-year) following a 2.0% increase in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% decline. Orders in the transportation sector decreased 0.4% (-8.5% y/y) after jumping 7.2%. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, were down 0.2% (-0.3% y/y), following an unchanged reading. In the second quarter GDP report inflation-adjusted non-residential fixed investment declined at a 1.0% annual rate (+2.6% y/y).
A 0.8% decline in motor vehicle and a 5.6% drop in aircraft orders (+3.3% and -37.7% y/y respectively) were more than offset by 0.6% and 1.3% gains in machinery and fabricated metals (-1.3% and +2.5% y/y respectively).
Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.1% in August (0.3% y/y) after falling 1.2%. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft increased 0.4% (1.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods including and excluding transportation both edged up 0.1% (-0.9% and +0.8% y/y respectively). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories ticked down 0.1% (+2.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -3.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -0.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | -8.5 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | -8.4 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
