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Economy in Brief
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The OECD amplitude-adjusted leading economic indicators show a slowing-to-mixed pattern...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in December
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen September 27, 2019
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in August (-3.0% year-on-year) following a 2.0% increase in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% decline. Orders in the transportation sector decreased 0.4% (-8.5% y/y) after jumping 7.2%. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, were down 0.2% (-0.3% y/y), following an unchanged reading. In the second quarter GDP report inflation-adjusted non-residential fixed investment declined at a 1.0% annual rate (+2.6% y/y).
A 0.8% decline in motor vehicle and a 5.6% drop in aircraft orders (+3.3% and -37.7% y/y respectively) were more than offset by 0.6% and 1.3% gains in machinery and fabricated metals (-1.3% and +2.5% y/y respectively).
Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.1% in August (0.3% y/y) after falling 1.2%. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft increased 0.4% (1.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods including and excluding transportation both edged up 0.1% (-0.9% and +0.8% y/y respectively). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories ticked down 0.1% (+2.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -3.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -0.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | -8.5 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | -8.4 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
