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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 4.1% w/w (+39.7% y/y) in the weekend January 22...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 18, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index eased 0.1% (+66.2% y/y) in the week ending September 13, following a 2.0% increase during the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan declined 4.3% (+148.0% y/y) after a 0.4% rise in the week prior. Purchase applications showed continued strength, rising 6.4% w/w (15.2% y/y). It was the third straight week of strong gain.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.51%, the highest level since late-July. Nevertheless, it remained well below the high of 4.71% reached in early November 2018. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 4.12% from 3.95%, but remained below the November 2018 high of 5.33%. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage increased sharply to 4.09% from 3.94%. The rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage was little changed at 3.65%.
The average mortgage loan size fell sharply to $327,400, the lowest level since early August.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 68.8% y/y, while adjustable rate loan applications increased 28.7% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 9/13/2019 | 9/06/2019 | 8/30/2019 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | -0.1 | 2.0 | -3.1 | 66.2 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | 6.4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 15.2 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | -4.3 | 0.4 | -7.0 | 148.0 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.51 | 3.40 | 3.37 | 4.46 (Sep '18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |