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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2019
Consumer spending remains on a positive track. Total retail sales rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) during August following a 0.8% July gain, revised from a 0.7%. June's increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. A 0.2% August gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts held steady last month (3.5% y/y) after surging an unrevised 1.0% in July. June's 0.3% rise was revised from 0.4%. Expectations had been for a 0.1% uptick.
Online sales jumped again. Sales via the internet strengthened 1.6% (16.0% y/y). The rise followed a 1.7% July increase and even larger gains during the prior two months.
Auto sales also were strong last month. They posted a 1.8% increase (6.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Last month's strength stemmed from a 1.1% m/m rise in unit sales of motor vehicles.
Purchases at building materials & garden equipment stores rounded out last month's strength with a 1.4% increase (1.0% y/y) which came after a 1.0% rise.
Offsetting these increases was a 0.9% decline (-2.3% y/y) in gasoline service station sales which followed a 1.4% gain. Last month's shortfall reflected a decline in the pump price of gasoline to $2.57 per gallon from $2.72.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 0.3% (5.3% y/y) last month. That followed a 0.9% gain in July and a 0.5% June increase.
Offsetting these gains was a 0.5% decline (+0.1% y/y) in sales at furniture & home furnishings stores. It was the third decline in four months. Purchases at apparel & accessory stores were off 0.9% (+0.4% y/y) after a 1.3% rise. Also weak were sales at general merchandise store sales which declined 0.3% (+1.0% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. To the upside were sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores as they improved 0.9% (2.1% y/y) and came after a 1.2% decline.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales eased 0.2% (+4.3% y/y) after a 1.4% rise. Health & personal care product store sales increased 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after easing 0.1% in July.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales declined 1.2% last month (+1.1% y/y) after six consecutive months of strong gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
Excluding Autos | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
Gasoline Stations | -0.9 | 1.4 | -2.5 | -2.3 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -1.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |