Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 11, 2019
Wholesale inventories increased 0.2% during July (7.1% y/y) after a 0.1% dip in June, revised from unchanged. The gain matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Durable goods inventories eased 0.2% (+8.7% y/y) in July after a 0.1% uptick. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, fell 0.2% (10.6% y/y), while vehicle inventories, the second largest group, rose 0.5% (+19.5% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories declined 1.5% (2.7% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.8% (4.4% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Drug inventories, which make up a quarter of nondurable inventories, rebounded 1.6% (3.7% y/y) after June's sharp decline. Apparel inventories declined 0.3% (+11.8% y/y), off for the fourth straight month. Inventories of chemicals declined 1.6% (-0.3% y/y) and the value of petroleum inventories rose 2.5% (0.6% y/y).
Wholesale sales improved 0.3% July (0.0% y/y) following three straight months of decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% uptick.
Durable goods sales declined 0.7% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 0.2% in June. Electrical equipment sales, the largest sector, fell 1.1% (-7.0% y/y), down sharply for four straight months. Professional and commercial equipment shipments, which includes computers, rose 0.2 % (10.3% y/y). Motor vehicle sales improved 0.3% (5.3% y/y). Nondurable product sales increased 1.2% (3.4% y/y) after two months of decline. Drug sales, which are nearly the largest category of nondurable sales, gained 0.7% (9.2% y/y) while apparel sales declined 1.1% (-0.1% y/y), off for three consecutive months. Chemical shipments fell 2.0% (+0.2% y/y) but grocery product sales rose 1.2% (7.7% y/y). Petroleum product deliveries eased 0.1% (7.0% y/y), the fourth straight monthly decline.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level held steady at a heightened 1.36 for the third consecutive month.
The durable goods I/S ratio increased to 1.77, the highest level since 2009. The machinery ratio rose to 2.78, while motor vehicles edged up to 1.78, nearly a ten-year high. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods was unchanged at 0.99. The paper industry I/S ratio held at a record 1.23. The drug industry I/S ratio remained low at 1.06 while the chemical industry ratio was steady at 1.14. The petroleum industry I/S ratio gained to 0.38.
The wholesale trade figures and oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | July | June | May | July Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Sales | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | -1.2 |
I/S Ratio | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.27 (July '18) | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |