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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 5, 2019
Manufacturers' orders rose 1.4% during July (0.3% y/y) following a little-revised 0.5% June gain. The Action Economics Forecast survey expected a 1.2% increase.
Durable goods orders jumped 2.0% (0.6% y/y) after a 1.8% decline. The gain compared to an advance report of a 2.1% rise. A 7.0% jump (2.3% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the overall rise, as nondefense aircraft orders surged. Electrical machinery orders rose 0.5% (4.8% y/y) and computer & electronics orders improved 0.4% (1.3% y/y).
Total shipments eased 0.2% (+0.5% y/y). Shipments of nondurable goods, which equal orders, rose 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 2.9% (-5.6% y/y) after two months of sharp decline. Textile mill shipments gained 0.7% (-1.1% y/y) but apparel shipments dropped 2.8% (-1.4% y/y). Paper product shipments were little-changed (0.3% y/y) while food product shipments rose 0.8% (0.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods declined 1.1% (+1.0% y/y) after a 0.9% rise. Machinery shipments fell 1.9% (-0.6% y/y) and electrical equipment shipments eased 0.2% (+4.2% y/y). Transportation sector shipments declined 2.0% (+2.3% y/y) as nondefense aircraft shipments weakened 16.2% (-13.0% y/y). Shipments of electrical equipment & appliances eased 0.2% (+4.2% y/y) but computer & electronic product shipments improved 0.2% (3.2% y/y).
The level of unfilled orders of durable goods were unchanged following three straight months of decline. Primary metals backlogs rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery held steady (-1.5% y/y) while computer & electronic product backlogs rose 0.1% (2.7% y/y). Electronic equipment & appliance unfilled orders jumped 1.1% (1.0% y/y). Unfilled orders for furniture declined 1.0% (-1.1% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during July. Auto inventories surged 2.7% (21.3% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 0.4% (5.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.4% (8.2% y/y) but computer & electronic product inventories fell 0.2% (+0.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) as petroleum inventories also slipped 0.1% (-4.9% y/y). Food products inventories rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y). Inventories of textile products rose 0.6% (2.7% y/y) but chemical product inventories eased 0.3% (+1.5% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.4 | 0.5 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
Shipments | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |