Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen August 30, 2019
Personal income edged up 0.1% (4.6% year-on-year) in July after an upwardly-revised 0.5% gain in June (was 0.4%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 0.3%. Employee compensation grew 0.2% (5.0% y/y), transfers were up a healthy 0.4% (7.1% y/y) and proprietors' income increased 0.5% (3.7% y/y). Meanwhile, receipts from assets fell 0.8% in June (+1.7% y/y). As a result of a 0.9% drop in tax payments (+5.8% y/y), disposable personal income rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y). When adjusted for inflation, disposable income ticked up 0.1% (3.0% y/y).
Personal consumption expenditures grew 0.6% in July, a tad better than the 0.5% anticipated by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Inflation-adjusted consumption increased 0.4% (2.7% y/y) with goods and services spending up 0.8% (4.5% y/y) and 0.3% (2.0% y/y) respectively. Durable goods spending jumped 1.1% (5.7% y/y) despite a 0.2% decline in vehicles (+2.9% y/y) -- furniture as well as recreation goods and vehicles sales showed strong gains (1.1% and 2.4%; 2.7% and 12.2% y/y respectively).
As a result of the combination of weak income growth and strong spending, the personal savings rate declined to a still healthy 7.7% in July from 8.0% in June.
The personal consumption chain price headline and core indexes both rose 0.2% in July (1.4% and 1.6% y/y respectively).
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
Personal Saving Rate | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 (Jul'18) | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |