Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Gerald D. Cohen August 26, 2019
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 2.1% in July (0.7% year-on-year) following a slightly downwardly revised increase of 1.8% gain in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.4% gain. Orders for transportation equipment jumped 7.0% (2.3% y/y) powered by a 44.2% jump in volatile aircraft orders (-2.8% y/y); orders for motor vehicles increased 0.5% (3.8% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, grew 0.4% (-0.3% y/y), following a 0.9% increase in June. In the second quarter, inflation-adjusted non-residential fixed investment declined at a 0.6% annual rate (+2.7% y/y).
Excluding the transportation sector, orders declined 0.4% in June (-0.1% y/y). Defense aircraft orders fell 32.1% last month (-58.1% y/y). New orders for motor vehicles & parts improved 3.1% (7.6% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods orders rose 1.2% in July (0.9% y/y) after a little-revised 0.5% gain.
Orders for nondefense capital goods recovered 4.8% (-6.6% y/y) and reversed June's decline. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft grew 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.3% rise, revised from 0.4%.
Elsewhere in the durable goods report, primary metals orders rose 0.8% (-6.1% y/y) and recovered June's decline. Orders for fabricated metals increased 2.1% (2.5% y/y), up for the third straight month. Orders for computers & related products rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Communication equipment orders jumped 4.0% (2.2% y/y), strong for a second straight month. Orders for computers & related products fell 1.8% (-3.3% y/y) after declining 3.2% in June. Orders for machinery improved 2.4% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Electrical equipment orders edged slightly higher (3.7% y/y) following five consecutive months of strong increase.
Shipments of durable goods increased 1.4% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Transportation sector shipments jumped 3.1% (3.8% y/y) and shipments excluding transportation gained 0.5% (2.1% y/y), about as they did in June. Unfilled orders for durable goods declined 0.7% (-0.3% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Order backlogs excluding transportation rose marginally (1.3% y/y) after falling 0.2% in each of the prior four months. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.3% (5.7% y/y) following two months of stronger increase. Transportation sector inventories rose 0.8% (10.5% y/y) and added to earlier months' strength. Inventories excluding transportation have been unchanged for three straight months.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 2.1 | 1.8 | -2.3 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
Transportation | 7.0 | 4.1 | -7.5 | 2.3 | 9.9 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
Total Excluding Transportation | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 7.0 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 5.0 | 5.0 | -5.0 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
Shipments | -1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |