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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 15, 2019
Consumer spending continues to exhibit strength. Total retail sales rose 0.7% (3.4% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June rise, revised from a 0.4%. May's increase was revised to 0.5% from 0.4%. A 0.3% July sales gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts gained 1.0% (3.7% y/y). It was the largest increase since March. June's 0.3% rise was revised from 0.4% and May's 0.5% gain was revised from 0.4%. The latest reading compared to expectations for a 0.5% improvement.
Purchases of motor vehicle & parts held back last month's overall sales increase with a 0.6% decline (+2.3% y/y). It followed two months of modest increase. Last month's result compared to a 2.0% m/m easing in unit sales of motor vehicles.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 1.0% (5.1% y/y) last month. That followed a 0.7% gain in June and a 0.8% May increase.
Sales exhibited broad-based improvement last month. Internet sales strengthened 2.8% (16.0% y/y) after a 1.9% rise. Electronics & appliance store sales increased 0.9% (-3.5% y/y) and reversed June's decline. Apparel & accessory store buying strengthened 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) after two minimal declines. General merchandise stores gained 0.6% (2.1% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Furniture & home furnishing store sales improved 0.3% (0.0% y/y) following modest declines in the prior two months. Purchases at building materials & garden equipment stores rose 0.2% (-2.9% y/y), the same as in June. Showing weakness were purchases at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores which fell 1.1%, the largest decline since December. The y/y decline moderated, however, to -0.5% versus an 11.8% y/y shortfall in December.
Strengthened by higher prices, gasoline service station sales rose 1.8% but held steady y/y.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales increased 0.6% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Health & personal care product store sales slipped 0.2% (+4.3% y/y) after rising 0.6% in June.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 1.1% last month (3.8% y/y) after five months of strong gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
Excluding Autos | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
Retail Less Autos | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.8 | -2.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |