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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 8, 2019
Wholesale inventories were unchanged (7.6% y/y) during June following an unrevised 0.4% May increase. A 0.2% rise was expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (10.1% y/y) in June after remaining unchanged in May. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, grew 0.7% (12.4% y/y), while vehicle inventories, the second largest group, eased 0.2% (+17.2% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 0.3% (6.2% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods fell 0.4% (+3.6% y/y) after a 0.6% increase. Drug inventories, which make up a quarter of nondurable inventories, fell 2.1% (+1.8% y/y). Apparel inventories declined 0.5% (+12.8% y/y) and inventories of chemicals were off 1.2% (+2.8% y/y). The value of petroleum inventories rose 2.2% (-7.6% y/y).
Wholesale sales edged 0.3% lower in June (-2.7% y/y) following declines during the two preceding months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase.
Durable goods sales rose 0.2% (-2.3% y/y) after holding steady in May. Electrical equipment sales, the largest sector, fell 0.9% (-6.7% y/y). Professional and commercial equipment shipments, which includes computers, rose 0.9% (1.1% y/y). Motor vehicle sales eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y). Nondurable product sales fell 0.7% (-3.1% y/y) after a 1.2% decline. Drug sales, which are nearly the largest category of nondurable sales, fell 0.4% (-0.6% y/y) while apparel sales declined 3.1% (-10.3% y/y). Chemical shipments were off 1.2% (-3.5% y/y) but grocery product sales rose 0.5% (2.1% y/y). Petroleum products deliveries declined 2.3% (7.8% y/y), the third straight monthly fall.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level was unchanged at 1.36, the highest in just over three years.
The durable goods I/S ratio increased to 1.76, the highest level since 2009. The machinery ratio rose to 2.75, while motor vehicles held steady at 1.77, nearly a ten-year high. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods was unchanged at 0.99. The paper industry I/S ratio rose to a record 1.23. The drug industry I/S ratio slipped to 1.06 while the chemical industry ratio held steady at 1.13. The petroleum industry I/S ratio gained to 0.36.
The wholesale trade figures and oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Sales | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -2.7 | 6.8 | 6.3 | -1.2 |
I/S Ratio | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.26 (Jun '18) | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |