Recent Updates
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (Jan)
- Lebanon: Port of Beirut Statistics (Dec)
- Canada: Retail Trade (Nov)
- UK Regional: Scotland: Walker Fraser Steele HPI (Nov)
- Hungary: Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 1, 2019
Initial claims jobless insurance rose to 215,000 during the week ended July 27 and made up most of the prior week's decline to 207,000, revised from 206,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 214,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 211,500 from 213,250, slightly above the 50-year low of 201,500 reached in April. During the last twenty years, there has been a 69% correlation between the level of initial jobless claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.699 million (-2.0% y/y) in the week ending July 20 from a little-revised 1.677 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of claimants was fairly steady at 1.698 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at the record low 1.2%, where it has been since May 2018. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending July 13, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Utah (0.45%), Indiana (0.46%), North Carolina (0.47%) and Florida (0.49%). The highest rates were in California (1.79%), Rhode Island (1.93%), Pennsylvania (1.98%), Connecticut (2.17%) and New Jersey (2.44%). Amongst other large states the rate was 0.64% in Tennessee, 1.06% in Texas, 1.32% in Michigan and 1.44% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 07/27/19 | 07/20/19 | 07/13/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 215 | 207 | 216 | -2.3 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,699 | 1,677 | -2.0 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |