The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index was little changed at -0.02 during June. That came after rising to -0.03 in May from April's -0.73. The three-month moving average also was steady last month versus May at -0.26, after April's weakening to -0.47. During the last twenty years, there has been a 70% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.

The National Activity Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, also was steady at -0.11. That was down from the peak of 0.47 in April 2018.

Stability in the June index reflected mixed performance amongst the component series. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series rose to 0.06 from -0.08. It was the highest level since January. The Personal Consumption & Housing reading was steady m/m at -0.05, up from the December 2018 low of -0.19. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure eased m/m to -0.03, but remained up sharply from its low just two months earlier. The Production & Income component fell moderately to 0.00, still greatly improved versus the April low of -0.49.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.