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Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 17, 2019
Housing starts eased 0.9% (+6.2% y/y) during June to 1.253 million (SAAR) from 1.265 million in May, revised from 1.269 million. Starts in April also were revised to 1.270 million from 1.199 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.260 million starts during June.
Starts of single-family homes increased 3.5% (-0.8% y/y) to 847,000 units from 818,000 in May, revised from 820,000. Multi-family housing starts fell 9.2% last month (+24.5% y/y) from 447,000 in May, revised from 449,000.
The decline in housing starts last month continued to reflect mixed performance across the country. In the Northeast, starts surged by roughly one-third m/m (4.8% y/y) to 109,000 units, and reversed most of May's sharp decline. Starts in the Midwest surged by roughly one-quarter, both m/m and y/y, to 197,000, the highest level since May of last year. Offsetting these gains was a 4.9% decline (-9.6% y/y) in housing starts in the West to 312,000, after little-change in May. Starts in the South also weakened, falling 9.2% (+12.0% y/y) to 635,000, the lowest level since October of last year.
Building permits weakened 6.1% last month (-6.6% y/y) to 1.220 million, the lowest level since May 2017 and 13.2% below the high in March of last year. Permits to build a single-family home rose 0.4% (-4.7% y/y) to 813,000, but have been in a downtrend since early last year. Multi-family building permits fell 16.8% (-10.2% y/y) to 407,000, the lowest level since April 2016. Permits data back through 2013 were revised.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,253 | 1,265 | 1,270 | 6.2 | 1,250 | 1,209 | 1,178 |
Single-Family | 847 | 818 | 862 | -0.8 | 873 | 852 | 786 |
Multi-Family | 406 | 447 | 408 | 24.5 | 377 | 357 | 392 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 109 | 83 | 132 | 4.8 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
Midwest | 197 | 155 | 162 | 20.1 | 171 | 180 | 185 |
South | 635 | 699 | 649 | 12.0 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
West | 312 | 328 | 327 | -9.6 | 336 | 314 | 292 |
Building Permits | 1,220 | 1,299 | 1,290 | -6.6 | 1,330 | 1,286 | 1,207 |