Recent Updates
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (Jan)
- Lebanon: Port of Beirut Statistics (Dec)
- Canada: Retail Trade (Nov)
- UK Regional: Scotland: Walker Fraser Steele HPI (Nov)
- Hungary: Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Sandy Batten July 16, 2019
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo edged up to 65 in July from 64 in June, reversing half of its June decline. Compared with a year ago, the index is 3 points lower and remains below the expansion high of 74 reached in December of 2017. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 65% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in new plus existing home sales.
Each of the index components edged up this month. The index of present sales conditions rose to 72 from 71 in June. The index of expected conditions in the next six months inched up to 71 from 70 in June. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased slightly to 48 from 47.
Regional readings were generally weak with declines in both the Northeast and the Midwest and only a modest one-point rise in the South. In contrast, the index for the West posted a sharp six-point rise to 75, its highest reading since June 2018.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database.
National Association of Home Builders | Jul | Jun | May | Jul'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 65 | 64 | 66 | 68 | 67 | 68 | 61 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 72 | 71 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 74 | 67 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 71 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 67 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 48 | 47 | 49 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 45 |