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- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller July 16, 2019
Improvement in consumer spending continues to underscore the economic expansion. Total retail sales increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) during June following a 0.4% May gain, revised from a 0.5%. April's increase was revised also to 0.4% from 0.3%. A 0.2% June gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts also rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y) for the second straight month. May's increase was revised from 0.5%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected.
During June, sales of motor vehicle & parts increased 0.7% (4.1% y/y) for a second straight month. This compared to a 0.7% m/m easing in unit sales of motor vehicles.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 0.7% (3.2% y/y) and built upon a 0.6% gain in May and a 0.5% April increase.
Growth in sales was broad-based last month. Purchases via the internet strengthened 1.7% (13.4% y/y) for a second straight month. Furniture & home furnishing store sales improved 0.5% (0.2% y/y) following a 0.1% easing. Purchases at building materials & garden equipment stores also rose 0.5% (-2.5% y/y) following two months of decline. Apparel & accessory store buying rose a similar 0.5% (-0.9% y/y) on the heels of a 0.2% dip. General merchandise stores gained 0.2% (2.5% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Showing weakness were purchases at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores which held steady (-3.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Also weakening were sales at electronics & appliance stores which fell 0.3% (-5.0% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
Also moving lower by 2.8% (-1.7% y/y) were gasoline service station sales, as prices fell.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month. Food & beverage store sales increased 0.5% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Health & personal care product store sales also rose 0.5% (5.5% y/y) after moving 0.9% higher in May.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.9% last month (4.0% y/y) after four months of strong gains.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
Gasoline Stations | -2.8 | -0.8 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |