Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Gerald D. Cohen July 16, 2019
Industrial production was flat during June (+1.3% year-on-year) following an unrevised 0.4% gain in May. April was revised down slightly to -0.5% from -0.4%. The Action Economics Survey forecast a 0.2% gain in June.
Manufacturing activity rose 0.4% (0.4% y/y) during June, after a 0.2% gain in May (unrevised). Utilities output dropped 3.6% (-2.6% y/y) as the number of cooling days returned to normal, after an above-normal reading in May, when utility output jumped 2.4%. Meanwhile mining activity increased 0.2% (8.7% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
The rise in manufacturing production was supported by a 0.4% increase in durables (1.4% y/y), with a 2.9% gain in motor vehicles (2.4% y/y) offsetting a 1.0% drop in machinery (+0.5% y/y). Both aerospace and computer output rose 0.9% (1.9% and 5.3% y/y respective). Nondurable output grew 0.5% (-0.5% y/y) as petroleum & coal jumped 2.5% (0.2% y/y), chemicals ticked down 0.1% (+0.9% y/y), and food increased 0.7% (-1.0% y/y).
By market group, consumer goods output was unchanged in June (-0.7% y/y), while business equipment and construction supplies both grew 0.5% (1.8% and 1.4% y/y respectively). Materials output declined 0.2% (+2.6% y/y) driven by a 0.9% drop in energy materials (+6.0% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products increased 0.7% (5.1% y/y). Semiconductor & electronic components gained 0.9% (3.2% y/y) and communications equipment grew 0.2% (14.7% y/y). Output in computer & office equipment was up 0.8% (-0.7% y/y) and stands just slightly above 2008 levels. Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors edged up 0.1% (+0.1% y/y) but is still 11% below its 2007 peak.
Capacity utilization declined to 77.9% in June from 78.1%. The Action Economics Survey expected an unchanged reading. Factory sector use rose to 75.9%, though it is down 1.4 percentage points from December's cyclical peak. Mining decreased to 91.5% well below the cycle high of 93.3% in December. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to strengthen, up 1.2% y/y, though capacity is still slightly below its 2008 peak.
Industrial production and capacity data and US Population-Weighted Heating and Cooling Days are included in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | -2.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
Consumer Goods | 0.0 | 0.5 | -1.7 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Business Equipment | 0.5 | 0.4 | -1.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 | -5.3 |
Construction Supplies | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
Materials | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | -3.0 |
Utilities | -3.6 | 2.4 | -3.3 | -2.6 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Mining | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 7.4 | -9.9 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.9 | 78.1 | 77.9 | 78.6 | 78.7 | 76.5 | 75.0 |
Manufacturing | 75.9 | 75.6 | 75.6 | 76.5 | 76.6 | 75.1 | 74.2 |