Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 10, 2019
Wholesale inventories increased 0.4% (7.7% y/y) during May following an unrevised 0.8% April gain. A 0.4% rise was expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (10.8% y/y) in May after a 0.9% rise in April. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, grew 0.6% (12.9% y/y), while vehicle inventories, the second largest group, advanced 1.8% (17.0% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories fell 1.8% (+6.7% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods gained 0.5% (2.9% y/y) after rising 0.7% in April. Drug inventories, which make up a quarter of nondurable inventories, were little changed (4.3% y/y). Apparel inventories fell 0.6% (+12.6% y/y) and inventories of chemicals rose 0.5% (5.0% y/y). Petroleum inventories fell 2.8% (-11.1% y/y).
Wholesale sales rose 0.1% during May (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for stability.
Durable goods sales rose 0.6% both m/m and y/y, after a 1.0% decline in April. Electrical equipment sales, the largest sector, rebounded 0.8% (-0.9% y/y) after a 2.9% shortfall. Professional and commercial equipment shipments, which includes computers, rose 0.7% (0.4% y/y) following a 1.6% drop. Motor vehicle sales surged 3.2% (4.4% y/y). Nondurable product sales fell 0.4% (-0.6% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Petroleum products deliveries declined 1.0% (2.8% y/y) with lower prices. Drug sales, which are nearly the largest category of nondurable sales, rose 1.1% (3.9% y/y) while apparel sales declined 3.1% (-2.8% y/y). Chemical shipments rose 1.8% (3.7% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level edged up to 1.35 and equaled the highest level in three years. The durable goods I/S ratio held steady at 1.75, the highest level since 2009. The machinery ratio rose to 2.72, while motor vehicles eased to 1.76, nearly a ten-year high. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods edged up to 0.98. The paper industry I/S ratio held at a record 1.20 while the petroleum industry I/S ratio eased to 0.33. The drug industry I/S ratio slipped to 1.08 while the chemical industry ratio fell to 1.13.
The wholesale trade figures and oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell is available here.
Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.0 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Sales | 0.1 | -0.4 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 6.8 | 6.3 | -1.2 |
I/S Ratio | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.26 (May '18) | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |