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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 9, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate eased to 4.6% during May from an unrevised 4.7% in April. It was unchanged from twelve months earlier. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The ability to find workers to fill openings also weakened. The hiring rate slipped to 3.8% from the record 3.9% in April. Employers let people go at a steady rate as shown by the layoff & discharge rate which held m/m at 1.2%, up from the record low of 1.1% in March. Individuals remained ready to find new work. The quits rate held steady at a near-record 2.3% where it's been since June of last year.
The private-sector job openings rate held steady m/m at 4.9%, and remained below the 5.2% record reached in November. The rate was increased from 4.6% early last year and from the 2.0% average at the recession low in 2009. In professional & business services, the rate rose to 5.8% but was below January's 6.5%. In leisure & hospitality, the rate improved to 5.9%, still below December's high of 6.2%. In education & health services, the rate increased to 5.2%, up from 2.6% in 2010. In trade, transportation & utilities, the rate declined returned to the recent low of 4.6%. The rate declined to 4.7% in the construction sector, down from the record 5.5% in April. In manufacturing, it returned to a record of 3.8%, up from 3.6% twelve months earlier. The government sector job openings rate slipped to 2.9% from the record 3.1% and remained up sharply from the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings declined 0.7% (+2.8% y/y) to 7.323 million after falling 1.4% in April. Job availability was plentiful. Private-sector openings rose 1.8% y/y while government sector job openings jumped 13.8% y/y.
Hiring activity eased. The private-sector hiring rate declined to 4.2% and fell below the expansion high of 4.4% reached twelve months earlier. The rate in leisure & hospitality slipped to 6.6%. In professional & business services, the hiring rate fell sharply to 5.2% and remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate slipped to 5.4%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities rose slightly to 4.2%, but was down sharply from 4.4% in November. In education & health services, the rate eased to 2.8% after five months at 3.0%. In manufacturing, the hiring rate slipped to 2.7%. This hiring rate was reduced from the July 2018 high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government remained at 1.7%.
Total hiring declined 4.4% (-2.3% y/y) to 5.725 million. Hiring in the private sector fell 2.9% y/y while government sector hiring gained 6.0% y/y.
Individuals were somewhat less inclined to find new work. The overall job separations rate fell to 3.6% and remained below October's expansion high of 3.8%. The private sector separations rate declined slightly to 4.0% and remained below the cycle high of 4.2% reached in July. It was up, however, from the recession low of 3.4%. The separations rate in government held steady at 1.6%.
The total level of separations was steady y/y. In the private sector, the 0.7% y/y decline reflected a 5.7% y/y fall in professional & business services and a 0.7% y/y easing in leisure & hospitality. Offsetting these declines was a 15.0% y/y surge in the construction sector. In educational and health services, separations were unchanged y/y, but separations in trade, transportation & utilities increased 6.1% y/y. Leisure & hospitality job separations eased 0.7% y/y and in manufacturing, they declined 2.6% y/y. Separations in the government sector increased 8.3% y/y.
The level of quits rose 2.5% y/y to 3.425 million in May as confidence in finding work remained high. The quits rate of 2.3% was increased sharply from 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate eased to 2.5%, about where it's been for a year, remaining up from 1.4% in the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate jumped to a record 1.0%.
The level of layoffs declined 2.8% y/y. In the private sector, layoffs fell 3.0% y/y, but the layoff rate remained near the record low of 1.3%, down from the 2009 high of 2.2%. Layoffs rose 1.1% y/y in the government sector and the layoff rate eased to 0.4%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May'18 | May'17 | May'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
Total (000s) | 7,323 | 7,372 | 7,474 | 7,126 | 5,821 | 5,775 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,725 | 5,991 | 5,697 | 5,862 | 5,469 | 5,228 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,760 | 1,830 | 1,693 | 1,811 | 1,796 | 1,795 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,425 | 3,516 | 3,461 | 3,342 | 3,138 | 3,023 |