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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes
by Charles Steindel  July 5, 2019

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for May show that growth is widespread across the nation, with moderate variation. Over the prior 12 months, 32 states had indexes with gains in the 2 to 4 percent range. Of the outliers, only one big state—Massachusetts—was on the high side, and two—Illinois and Michigan---on the low side. Nevada was yet again the high side leader, with a whopping again show that growth is less intensely centered in the West. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada is once again the leader, with a whopping 5.7% increase, far ahead of number 2 Vermont's 4.5%. On the low end, Kansas, Michigan, and Louisiana had gains of less than 1 percent, while Hawaii reported a decline.

Over the three months ending in May West Virginia's 1.9% increase edged out Nevada's 1.8% for the number one spot. Western states generally reported faster growth than those in the East in this period, with seven Western states (including Texas) with increases above 1 percent, with only four Eastern states in that group. Four states showed declines, with Michigan down .5%. In general, Midwestern states were softer than the rest of the nation, with Minnesota and Kansas also down, and meager gains in some of the larger states in the region.

Montana had the largest increase from April to May, barely edging out West Virginia. Seven states had declines, with Michigan's being the largest.

Whiie the overall picture still shows gains across the nation, the latest set of numbers show some softer areas. This report largely reflects the May job numbers, and it is the stronger June national report may show through to better numbers in some regions.

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