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Economy in Brief
ISM Manufacturing Index Weakens in March
ISM Manufacturing Index Weakens in March...
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Markit PMIs fall and show weakness in March
Only two entries China and Taiwan improve month-to-month ...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Sharply in March as Expectations Erode
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence declined 9.5% (-3.4% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller June 26, 2019
Activity in the manufacturing sector weakened during May. New orders for durable goods declined 1.3% (-2.8% y/y) following a 2.8% April fall, revised from -2.1%. A 0.1% easing in May orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 4.6% decline (-8.4% y/y) in transportation sector orders prompted the decline in total new orders and added to a 7.6% April drop. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders fell more than one-quarter m/m. Defense aircraft orders fell 15.3% (-11.7% y/y). New orders for motor vehicles & parts improved 0.6% (9.1% y/y) following a 3.2% decline. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.3% (0.2% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods weakened 2.3% (-9.7% y/y) and added to the prior month's 6.9% drop. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.4% (1.3% y/y) following a 1.0% weakening.
Elsewhere in the durable goods report it was indicated that primary metals orders rose 0.4% (-5.9% y/y), but orders for fabricated metals eased 0.4% (-0.5% y/y). Orders for computers & related products rose 0.8% (4.6% y/y. Communication equipment orders rose 1.7% (0.2% y/y), but orders for computers & related products fell 2.4% (-2.6% y/y). Orders for machinery gained 0.7% (0.4% y/y). Electrical equipment orders slipped 0.4% (+3.8% y/y) after three straight months of strong increase.
Shipments of durable goods increased 0.4% (2.4% y/y) following two months of decline. Transportation sector shipments were off 0.3% (+3.4% y/y) and shipments excluding transportation gained 0.4% (1.9% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.5% (+0.9% y/y) while excluding transportation, order backlogs fell 0.2% (+1.9% y/y). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.5% (5.0% y/y), the largest increase since January, prompted by a 1.6% gain (6.9% y/y) in transportation sector inventories. Inventories excluding transportation were little changed (4.1% y/y) for a second straight month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.3 | -2.8 | 1.7 | -2.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -4.6 | -7.6 | 6.0 | -8.4 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.3 | -6.9 | 2.6 | -9.7 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 2.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
