The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index rose to -0.05 during May following an April decline to -0.48. The three-month moving average increased to -0.17, its highest level since January. During the last ten years, there has been a 42% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.

The National Activity Index Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, increased to -0.12, its highest level also since January. This measure remained, however, below the peak of 0.37 in December 2017.

Improvement in the May index was led by the Production & Income series which rose to 0.07, the first positive reading since December. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure improved m/m to neutral. The Personal Consumption & Housing Measure ticked higher to -0.06. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series returned to negative territory.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.