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- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 24, 2019
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index rose to -0.05 during May following an April decline to -0.48. The three-month moving average increased to -0.17, its highest level since January. During the last ten years, there has been a 42% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The National Activity Index Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, increased to -0.12, its highest level also since January. This measure remained, however, below the peak of 0.37 in December 2017.
Improvement in the May index was led by the Production & Income series which rose to 0.07, the first positive reading since December. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure improved m/m to neutral. The Personal Consumption & Housing Measure ticked higher to -0.06. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series returned to negative territory.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | May | Apr | Mar | May '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Activity Index (percent) | -0.05 | -0.48 | 0.02 | -0.41 | 0.19 | 0.15 | -0.11 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.17 | -0.37 | -0.27 | 0.11 | -- | -- | -- |
| Diffusion Index | -0.12 | -0.26 | -0.21 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| Production & Income | 0.07 | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.58 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.06 | -0.08 | 0.03 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | -0.00 |
