Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller June 20, 2019
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $130.4 billion during Q1'19 from $143.9 billion during Q4'18, revised from $134.4 billion. It compared to a $125.0 billion deficit expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percent of GDP, the deficit narrowed to 2.5% from 2.8% in Q4.
The smaller deficit last quarter was due to a lessened $216.5 billion shortfall on goods trade. Goods exports rose 0.6% (2.1 % y/y) and reversed the Q4 decline, while goods imports declined 2.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
The surplus on services trade was little changed at $61.9 billion, but earlier surpluses were revised down. Services exports rose 1.1% (0.8% y/y) after holding steady in Q4. Telecommunications, computer & information services exports gained 0.6% (5.6% y/y) after two quarters of strong increase. Exports of intellectual property rights declined 0.7% (-6.4% y/y), the fourth straight quarter of decline. Travel exports improved 2.6% (0.5% y/y). Services imports gained 1.1% (5.3% y/y) after two quarters of stronger increase. Charges for intellectual property rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) and travel imports strengthened 1.8% (7.0% y/y). Telecommunications, computer & information services imports rose 1.8% (7.4% y/y).
The surplus on primary income rose modestly to $61.1 billion, down versus the record high of $66.4 billion reached one year earlier. The deficit on secondary income widened to a record $36.9 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
US Balance of Payments SA | Q1'19 | Q4'18 | Q3'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -130.4 | -143.9 | -125.7 | -491.0 | -439.6 | -428.3 |
Deficit % of GDP | -2.5 | -2.8 | -2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -216.5 | -232.3 | -227.9 | -887.3 | -805.2 | -749.8 |
Exports | 0.6% | -0.6% | -1.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | -3.6% |
Imports | -2.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | -2.9% |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 61.9 | 61.2 | 64.5 | 259.7 | 255.1 | 246.8 |
Exports | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
Imports | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 61.1 | 60.1 | 64.7 | 254.0 | 225.8 | 198.7 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -36.9 | -32.8 | -27.0 | -117.3 | -115.3 | -124.0 |