Recent Updates
- US: Business Employment Dynamics (Q2), Advance Durable Goods (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 4.1% w/w (+39.7% y/y) in the weekend January 22...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 20, 2019
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $130.4 billion during Q1'19 from $143.9 billion during Q4'18, revised from $134.4 billion. It compared to a $125.0 billion deficit expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percent of GDP, the deficit narrowed to 2.5% from 2.8% in Q4.
The smaller deficit last quarter was due to a lessened $216.5 billion shortfall on goods trade. Goods exports rose 0.6% (2.1 % y/y) and reversed the Q4 decline, while goods imports declined 2.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
The surplus on services trade was little changed at $61.9 billion, but earlier surpluses were revised down. Services exports rose 1.1% (0.8% y/y) after holding steady in Q4. Telecommunications, computer & information services exports gained 0.6% (5.6% y/y) after two quarters of strong increase. Exports of intellectual property rights declined 0.7% (-6.4% y/y), the fourth straight quarter of decline. Travel exports improved 2.6% (0.5% y/y). Services imports gained 1.1% (5.3% y/y) after two quarters of stronger increase. Charges for intellectual property rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) and travel imports strengthened 1.8% (7.0% y/y). Telecommunications, computer & information services imports rose 1.8% (7.4% y/y).
The surplus on primary income rose modestly to $61.1 billion, down versus the record high of $66.4 billion reached one year earlier. The deficit on secondary income widened to a record $36.9 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
US Balance of Payments SA | Q1'19 | Q4'18 | Q3'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -130.4 | -143.9 | -125.7 | -491.0 | -439.6 | -428.3 |
Deficit % of GDP | -2.5 | -2.8 | -2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -216.5 | -232.3 | -227.9 | -887.3 | -805.2 | -749.8 |
Exports | 0.6% | -0.6% | -1.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | -3.6% |
Imports | -2.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | -2.9% |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 61.9 | 61.2 | 64.5 | 259.7 | 255.1 | 246.8 |
Exports | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
Imports | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 61.1 | 60.1 | 64.7 | 254.0 | 225.8 | 198.7 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -36.9 | -32.8 | -27.0 | -117.3 | -115.3 | -124.0 |