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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2019
The industrial sector exhibited life last month. Industrial production increased 0.4% (2.0% y/y) during May and recouped a 0.4% April decline, revised from -0.5%. Output has declined 0.9% since December. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Manufacturing activity recovered 0.2% (0.7% y/y) during May following a 0.5% decline. Output is down 1.5% versus December. Utilities output rebounded 2.1% (0.3% y/y) last month after a 3.1% drop. Mining activity improved 0.1% (10.0% y/y) following a 2.2% increase.
The increase in manufacturing production reflected a 2.0% surge (2.8% y/y) in durable goods output, with motor vehicles production improving 3.4% (5.5% y/y). Appliance, furniture & carpeting production strengthened 1.7% (-2.0% y/y) and production of computers, video & audio products rose 1.1% (15.9% y/y). Nondurable goods output increased 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) as energy product production surged 1.5% (1.4% y/y). Chemical product output gained 0.2% (0.1% y/y, but production of clothing fell 1.4% (-13.5% y/y). Production of food & tobacco products eased 0.6% (-2.2% y/y). Business equipment production rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) as industrial and other equipment rebounded 1.4% (2.4% y/y) following a sharp April decline. Production of information processing equipment rose 0.3% (5.2% y/y) but transit equipment declined 2.2% (+2.5% y/y).
Construction supplies' output improved 0.2% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.7% decline. Production of materials increased 0.3% (3.5% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products increased 0.3% (6.6% y/y). Semiconductor & electronic components gained 1.1% (7.3% y/y) and communications equipment edged 0.1% higher (17.0% y/y). Output in computer & office equipment declined 1.5% (-0.6% y/y). Factory sector production, excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors, held steady (0.1% y/y).
Capacity utilization rebounded to 78.1% in May and made up most of its April decline to 77.9%. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 78.0%. The factory sector utilization rate rose to 75.7%. Mining sector capacity utilization eased to 91.3%, and remained below December's cycle high of 93.2%. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to strengthen, up 1.1% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data and US Population-Weighted Heating and Cooling Days are included in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | -2.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
Consumer Goods | 0.5 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Business Equipment | 0.2 | -1.5 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | -5.3 |
Construction Supplies | 0.2 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
Materials | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | -3.0 |
Utilities | 2.1 | -3.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Mining | 0.1 | 2.2 | -0.4 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.4 | -9.9 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.1 | 77.9 | 78.4 | 78.1 | 78.7 | 76.5 | 75.0 |
Manufacturing | 75.7 | 75.6 | 76.1 | 76.0 | 76.6 | 75.1 | 74.2 |