Recent Updates
- France: Business Survey in Industry (Q1), Services Survey, Bi-monthly Survey of Wholesaling (Jan)
- South Africa: Wholetrade Sales (Nov)
- Spain: Industry Turnover (Nov)
- Spain Regional: Harmonized Business Confidence Index (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen June 14, 2019
Total business inventories increased 0.5% (5.3% year-on-year) during April, after being unchanged in March (unrevised). Total business sales decreased 0.2% (+2.8% y/y) following a 1.3% gain (revised down from 1.6%). The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio ticked up to 1.39 from an upwardly-revised 1.38. Business inventory swings can have a meaningful impact on GDP. In the first quarter inventories added 0.6 percentage point to GDP growth.
Retail inventories increased 0.5% (4.6% y/y) in April after declining 0.3%. Auto inventories, which comprise roughly 35% of retail inventories, grew 0.8% (8.2% y/y). Non-auto retail inventories rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y). General merchandise inventories, the second largest sector were unchanged (+0.1% y/y). The troubled department store sector – a subset of general merchandise – saw inventories down 1.4% (-7.7% y/y). Factory sector inventories gained 0.3% (3.8% y/y). As reported last week, wholesale inventories were up 0.8% (7.6% y/y).
Retail sales increased an upwardly-revised 0.3% in April (was -0.2%) and 3.5% y/y, with non-auto sales growing 0.5% (3.6% y/y). Note: the advanced retail sales data for May was released today showing a 0.5% gain (3.1% y/y). Wholesale sector sales declined 0.4% in April (+2.7% y/y), while shipments from the factory sector were down 0.5% (+2.2% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector was unchanged at 1.45. The non-auto I/S ratio ticked up down to 1.19, slightly above the historic low of 1.17 reached in November 2018 (data goes back to 1967). The wholesale and factory sector I/S ratios edged up to 1.34 and 1.37 respectively.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.53 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 5.30 | 4.92 | 3.37 | 1.70 |
Retail | 0.53 | -0.26 | 0.16 | 4.61 | 4.22 | 2.36 | 4.10 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.39 | -0.05 | 0.38 | 2.60 | 1.25 | 2.16 | 1.95 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.82 | -0.02 | 0.41 | 7.63 | 7.14 | 3.26 | 1.90 |
Manufacturing | 0.26 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 3.78 | 3.52 | 4.46 | -0.71 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -0.23 | 1.27 | 0.11 | 2.77 | 6.09 | 5.57 | -0.80 |
Retail | 0.29 | 1.87 | -0.36 | 3.49 | 4.72 | 4.96 | 2.55 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.52 | 1.46 | -0.41 | 3.64 | 5.35 | 4.97 | 2.01 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.40 | 1.82 | 0.31 | 2.73 | 6.54 | 6.72 | -1.30 |
Manufacturing | -0.53 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 2.18 | 6.89 | 4.98 | -3.17 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |