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- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2019
Total retail sales increased 0.5% (3.2% y/y) during May following a 0.3% April increase, revised from a 0.2% slip reported initially. A 0.6% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y), the same as during April, revised from 0.1%. A 0.4% gain had been expected.
Last month, sales of motor vehicle & parts increased 0.7% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.5% fall during April. This compared to a 6.2% gain in unit sales of motor vehicles during May.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 0.5% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.4% rise, revised from unchanged.
Sales strength was broad-based last month. Purchases via the internet surged 1.4% (11.4% y/y), following a 0.5% rise. Purchases at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores rose 1.1% (-4.2% y/y) and repeated April's strength. Sales of electronics & appliance store also rose 1.1% (-2.4% y/y) and reversed April's 1.3% decline. General merchandise store sales increased 0.7% (3.3% y/y), extending the strength during the prior two months. Elsewhere, goods spending was tepid. Furniture & home furnishings store sales gained 0.1% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Sales of building materials and garden equipment were little changed (0.2% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Clothing & accessory store sales also held steady (-2.3% y/y) after a 0.2% dip.
Gasoline service station sales improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) as prices continued to increase.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales slipped 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Health & personal care product store sales improved 0.6% (3.4% y/y) following a 0.2% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Excluding Autos | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
Retail Sales | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
Gasoline Stations | 0.3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 3s.7 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |